Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 1041.340027 1185.391024 1347.533149 1544.612294 1779.091375 2050.897402 2392.366005
2025-05-11 824.618651 1010.975104 1241.578981 1552.217045 1966.426768 2509.553656 3292.452151
2025-05-18 729.523238 938.056424 1212.583915 1609.016970 2181.634296 3003.213004 4319.091070
2025-05-25 658.022270 878.409831 1183.191076 1648.990944 2368.450380 3484.336360 5449.268442
2025-06-01 596.519178 820.917377 1144.049986 1661.926317 2509.145037 3916.547500 6618.682272
2025-06-08 544.306449 768.610325 1102.951695 1661.369092 2622.650831 4322.223180 7860.939794
2025-06-15 509.882773 737.720039 1088.665119 1698.662864 2802.740155 4881.274420 9589.749939
2025-06-22 461.493500 679.747773 1024.201605 1641.097775 2801.177400 5094.505527 10652.502966
2025-06-29 421.548568 630.974982 968.843393 1590.732185 2802.400225 5310.719770 11800.198634
2025-07-06 385.495311 585.110412 913.379163 1532.326201 2776.957161 5463.329554 12847.480787
2025-07-13 373.394806 577.372510 921.539015 1591.982038 2999.933679 6221.512019 15882.863213
2025-07-20 356.390111 559.721668 910.299226 1612.487795 3143.486213 6831.832567 18806.111616
2025-07-27 339.358490 541.207749 896.765903 1629.033509 3287.589954 7501.996474 22392.287992
2025-08-03 322.696323 522.047646 880.330379 1637.926424 3417.766167 8182.600840 26520.485513
2025-08-10 314.015589 516.266743 888.137625 1698.604066 3685.397989 9344.279850 33539.236625
2025-08-17 303.849342 506.841141 887.829400 1741.399730 3917.968434 10492.019815 41667.020634
2025-08-24 291.373243 492.078479 875.481401 1755.247602 4077.613334 11470.705521 50074.049530
2025-08-31 278.480289 475.527964 857.948963 1754.651111 4197.937622 12366.918789 59179.823502
2025-09-07 270.463939 467.695786 857.479459 1794.589161 4444.471668 13838.259371 74252.866299
2025-09-14 253.877687 442.032634 817.576403 1732.948918 4375.259877 14057.074328 80664.954841
2025-09-21 239.260428 419.367296 782.333301 1679.048261 4320.707888 14325.243127 88073.098736
2025-09-28 224.997750 396.597270 745.259452 1616.579322 4228.615245 14408.506496 94194.775984
2025-10-05 221.974130 396.155256 756.520290 1680.385490 4560.783904 16546.894746 125216.496894